Happy official Fall to all!

The leaves in Bend are changing, the weather is shifting and Mt. Bachelor has received a lovely blanket of snow. For the hardcore skiers out there, it was enough to get them skiing the cone. I personally love my skis (and knees) too much to brave a few turns so I leave it to them. I hope this email finds you in good health and having a lovely seasonal change.

Fall is a time where our market starts to trend down. This is a normal occurance that begins in August and fluctuates throughout the fall and into winter and through the holidays. As with all things though, this year is a bit of an exception. The trending down is more than we’ve seen in quite some time. In tracking the amount of single-family homes on less than an acre that have sold between January 1st and October 11^th for the past 23 years, the number have homes that have sold has dropped to a number we haven’t seen since 2011. For the past 11 years we’ve seen anywhere from a low of 1538 sell in 2012 to a high of 2038 homes sell in 2020. For the past eight years we’ve seen, on average, 1916 homes close each year in that time period. From January 1^st to October 11^th, this year we’ve seen 1293 homes close. That’s 623 below the average. As in all emails that I’ve sent for the past year, this is definitely connected to (continually) rising interest rates which is keeping sellers from entering the market and keeping inventory tight along with inflation and concerns for the economy.

You’ll see in the stats below that cash buyers continue to remain high relative to what’s sold. In the category of homes that sold for under a million dollars, we’re seeing more homes sell for under their asking price. In the category of homes that have sold for over a million dollars, not much has changed.

All that being said, let’s get down to the facts:

September Numbers in Bend

Median Home Price: $750k, slightly higher than August and a bit higher than $725k in September 2022

Homes Sold: 135 sold, down from 156 in August and significantly down from 182 in Sept. 2022

Days on Market: 17 days, slightly up from 16 days in August and down from 20 days in 2022

Cash vs. Conventional Loans: Of the 122 homes sold with a cash or a conventional loan, 38% were cash financed. We’ve only seen that high of a percentage of cash purchased homes in May of 2022, November of 2022

Inventory: Holding steady at just over a two month supply. (When broken down, the $500k-$700k price range has a 1.6 month supply, the $700k-$850k price range has a 3.25 month supply, $850-$1.2mil price range has a 2.5 month supple and in the $1.8mil+ category, we have a 4.3 month supply)

135 Homes Sold in September:

13% under $550k

29% from $550k-$699,999

29% from $700k-$999,999

14% from $1mill – $1,399,999

15% over $1.4mill

96 Homes Sold Under a Million:

24% sold over asking (vs. 33% in August)

13% sold at asking (vs. 15% in August)

63% sold under asking (vs. 52% in August)

39 Sold Over a Million:

23% sold over asking (vs. 22% in August)

18% sold at asking (vs. 19% in August)

59% sold under asking (vs. 59 in August)

The bottom line is that, in a weird way, it’s a good time to sell but you obviously want a game plan of where you will go once you sell your home. We may still technically be in a seller’s market but this is strictly due to the amount of current inventory. As a buyer, this is a good time to get a home for under asking, ask for credits from a seller about a buy down on your rate, really look at the inspection once you’re under contract and ask for repairs or credits toward repairs. It may not be as easy to sell a home right now but it’s a good time for negotiating for what you want.

As always, I welcome talking real estate or whatever may be on your mind as the season continues to change. Stay warm, don’t scare the kids too badly this Halloween and be well.

We were in the last gasps of summer and just as the temperatures can be erratic at this time of year apparently so is our current market. Interest rates remain high which defies all the predictions from the last year and a half. Many lenders out there used prior times of inflationary adjustments to predict that we would bounce back in about 18 months from the time the Feds started raising rates. Well, here we are just about 18 months later and things are moving in the other direction. We seem to be in uncharted waters regarding interest rates from what I can tell but if you want a deeper discussion I’m happy to recommend lenders that are much nerdier in this department than I am and love getting into the minutiae.

Although inventory is still tight and buyers continue to be discerning, due to only a two month supply of houses in Bend, it’s still a seller’s market. There’s been an interesting phenomenon happening as of late where buyers are walking away from negotiations or even contracts because they’re not getting exactly what they want from the seller. We’ve seen a slight uptick in the “Back on Market” properties whether due to cold feet, financing changes or inspection negotiations not coming together. Buyer’s are able to be a bit pickier. Even pendings were way down during the last three weeks of August which is not typical of this time of year.

Although Bend’s inventory level is holding steady at two months, inventory is increasing in Redmond. The inventory as a whole increased to 3 months for the first time since September of 2019. Some of that can be attributed to the amount of new builds in Redmond over the years though. The interesting piece for Redmond is the inventory for the $600k-$650k price point specifically has been increasing. They currently have an almost 8 1/2 month supply showing that there has been a flood of inventory in that price point coming to market.

All that being said, let’s get down to it:

August Numbers in Bend

Median Home Prices: $742k, down from $800k in July

Homes Sold: 156 sold, up from 141 in July

Days on Market: 16 days, up from 9 in July

Cash vs. Conventional Loans: 29% were cash financed, same as 29% in July

Inventory: 2 months, holding steady from last month (note that in the $1.6mill – $1.8mill we have a 6 month supply and in the $1.8mill+ we have a 4 1/2 month supply down from an almost 6 month supply in July)

156 Homes Sold in August: 

10% under $550k

30% from $550 – $699,999

36% from $700 – $999,999

12% from $1mill – $1,399,999

12% over $1.4mill

119 Homes Sold Under a Million: 

33% sold over asking  (vs. 30% in July)

15% sold at asking (vs. 23% in July)

52% sold under asking (vs. 47% in July)

37 Homes Sold Over a Million: 

22% sold over asking (vs. 26% in July)

19% sold at asking (vs. 26% in July)

59% sold under asking (vs. 48% in July)

Overall, we’re continuing to see more and more houses sell for under the original asking price. There are more negotiations happening between buyer and seller as the market continues to soften/plateau (or whatever term you’d prefer to use). But as we’ve been seeing for the past many months, there are still houses selling for asking or over asking all over town. Whether they’re prepped and ready for sale, priced correctly or in a location that is super desirable, some homes are moving faster than others. The takeaway is that if you’re looking to see a property, making sure it’s dialed, clean and ready for a new owner is key.

I’m always here if you have questions or in need of a good chat.

Have a lovely weekend and a great beginning to the Fall!

Happy August!

I recently saw a picture of the woman that holds the record for the Guinness Book of World Record longest nails. It was both shocking, amazing, impressive and upsetting. The look on her face could best be described as proud. Why not be proud? She’s made great sacrifices to reach this point. She most likely can’t do a menagerie of activities due to the length of her nails but it was something she felt compelled to do and she’s obviously learned to live with the changes. Her reasoning for doing it was born from something sad that had happened and I’ll let you look into that on your own but through this sadness she achieved something worthy of gaining a world record. What on earth does this woman with uncomfortably long nails have to do with real estate you may be asking. Good question.

This past month of July we reached a record high for the median home sales price at $800,000! Much like my reaction to the lady with the lengthy nails, I felt many of the same emotions. Much like her experience, this has been a gradual growth process over the course of many years (we did, however, see a more rapid jump than her due to Covid). Prior to March of 2019 we had capped out at a median home price high of $475,000 in August of 2019. Since then it’s basically been nothing but up. Last month, of the 141 homes sold, almost 32% of them sold for over a million dollars. The reports that I use to run my numbers each month include pricing in $100k increments and we are pretty much at a point where the $400k and below category can be eliminated while we need to create more detailed categories for $1.8mil and higher. This would have been absolutely unheard of four years ago.

The effects of our growth are currently being felt all over Bend. A new section of Highway 97 is being built to allow for a business loop on the north end of town to ease congestion and to create a smoother flow to Redmond. A new Costco and gas station will be built on the north end of town and new construction is literally happening on all sides of town with 1,200 new apartment rentals reported to be coming on the market over the next six months. This growth that we’re living through has its side effects. Trails are more crowded causing the Forest Service to put permit usage into place, longer lines at Mt. Bachelor in the winter which has caused ownership to put their Fast Tracks program into place (love it or hate it), longer waits to get a table or a reservation at your favorite restaurant. We learn to live with the growth through changes to our lifestyle or we make a move. We are adaptable much like our world recording holding friend.

Enough of my ranting, right?!? Let’s get to some hard numbers:

July Numbers

Median Home Prices: $800k, up from $785k in June

Homes Sold: 141 sold, down from 172 in June

Days on Market: 9 days, down from 13 in June

Cash vs. Conventional Loans: 29% were cash financed, vs. 36% in June

Inventory: 2 months, holding steady from last month (note that in the $1.6mill – $1.8mill we have a 5 month supply and in the $1.8mill+ we have an almost 6 month supply)

141 Homes Sold in June: 

11% under $550k

23% from $550 – $699,999

33% from $700 – $999,999

14% from $1mill – $1,399,999

19% over $1.4mill

95 Homes Sold Under a Million: 

30% sold over asking  (vs. 21% in June)

23% sold at asking (vs. 25% in June)

47% sold under asking (vs. 54% in June)

46 Homes Sold Over a Million: 

26% sold over asking (vs. 25% in June)

26% sold at asking (vs. 11% in june)

48% sold under asking (vs. 64% in June)

At the end of the day, not a ton has changed since last month. We’re still seeing homes that are “desirable” selling quickly and over asking. Desirable, though, is a relative term. Everybody has a different need, a different desire, and therefore a different house suits them. We’re still not at the inventory level that we would have been pre-2020 and the interest rates are still giving a helping hand to that scarcity. We are still very much in a seller’s market. All-in-all properties are still moving and people that are willing and able to buy and sell real estate have adapted to this new version of normal. And over time we will continue to evolve and people will continue to adjust to whatever that new normal looks like.

As always, thanks for sticking with me through my ramblings. If I can help you with anything, or if you have any questions, feel free to reach out.

The heat of summer is on and so is the market in Bend. In June we hit a high of $785,000 for our median sale price. Now keep in mind, looking at the market at such a micro level isn’t a true indication of the market as a whole or even from one side of town to the other but we’ll get to some fun graphs that’ll give a better perspective of how we’re fairing compared to years past. Spoiler alert, we’re currently seeing less sales at higher prices overall.

Meanwhile (see below), the median sale price in each section of town has been on an upward trajectory since 2013. To date (2023) the median sale price has stabilized in NW Bend and slightly declined in the other areas. Something of interest is the wide spread of median price in the NW Bend area compared to the NE area. In 2013-2014, there was about a $165,000 difference in median sale price between these areas. In 2022, there was a $285,000 difference in median sale price between NW Bend and NE Bend. So far in 2023, there is a $305,000 difference.

These charts illustrate a couple of things. Our median sale price each month, as well as on an annual basis, is easily swayed by higher priced homes selling in a particular part of time, namely the NW. It can skew the numbers and make it look as though Bend overall has an incredibly high median sales price. There’s a considerable amount of price diversity in Bend based on location. All that being said, it’s clear that the NW part of town commands a premium price when compared to other areas. That premium has increased since 2013 and has contributed to the increase of median sales price in the Beacon report along with the higher volume of single family residential sales in the $1 Mill+ price categories. And now for the most recent numbers to get all micro again:

June Numbers

Median Home Price: $785k, up from $745k last month

Homes Sold: 172 sold, up from 157 in May

Days on Market: 13 days, up from 7 in May

Cash vs. Conventional Loans: 36% were cash financed in June, higher than we were seeing earlier this year and in 2022 which held steady around 25%.

Inventory: 2 months (finally) but still lower than our normal summer average.

Interesting Note for June: 25% of the 172 homes sold in June sold for over $1,000,000. In June of 2019 there were 236 home sales and only 5% of them sold for over a million. Our $1 Mill+ market has had a significant boom in only a few short years.

172 Homes sold in June: 

12% under $550k

27% from $550k – $700K

35% from $700 – $1mil

11% from $1mil – $1.4mil

15% over $1.4mil

128 Homes Sold Under a Million: 

21% sold over asking (vs. 36% in May)

25% sold at asking (vs. 18% in May)

54% sold under asking (vs. 46% in May)

44 Homes Sold Over a Million: 

25% sold over asking (vs. 22% in May)

11% sold at asking (vs. 27% in May)

65% sold under asking (vs. 52% in May)

Overall, we’re seeing an uptick of homes selling under the original asking price than in previous months and a higher percentage of cash purchases which makes sense considering mortgage rates are still hovering in the high 6’s to 7% (especially if people are not buying down their rates). Remember, however, if you’re looking to buy or sell a home, cash is not always king. The terms could be better from a financed buyer than the cash buyer. Cash is not a slam dunk.

We’re coming off of what is normally our peak season and we’ll see what the rest of the summer brings. In the meantime, enjoy it out there and thank you for sticking with me through this longer than normal report.

It’s almost officially Summer!!!!