Market Update for September 2023

Happy official Fall to all!

The leaves in Bend are changing, the weather is shifting and Mt. Bachelor has received a lovely blanket of snow. For the hardcore skiers out there, it was enough to get them skiing the cone. I personally love my skis (and knees) too much to brave a few turns so I leave it to them. I hope this email finds you in good health and having a lovely seasonal change.

Fall is a time where our market starts to trend down. This is a normal occurance that begins in August and fluctuates throughout the fall and into winter and through the holidays. As with all things though, this year is a bit of an exception. The trending down is more than we’ve seen in quite some time. In tracking the amount of single-family homes on less than an acre that have sold between January 1st and October 11^th for the past 23 years, the number have homes that have sold has dropped to a number we haven’t seen since 2011. For the past 11 years we’ve seen anywhere from a low of 1538 sell in 2012 to a high of 2038 homes sell in 2020. For the past eight years we’ve seen, on average, 1916 homes close each year in that time period. From January 1^st to October 11^th, this year we’ve seen 1293 homes close. That’s 623 below the average. As in all emails that I’ve sent for the past year, this is definitely connected to (continually) rising interest rates which is keeping sellers from entering the market and keeping inventory tight along with inflation and concerns for the economy.

You’ll see in the stats below that cash buyers continue to remain high relative to what’s sold. In the category of homes that sold for under a million dollars, we’re seeing more homes sell for under their asking price. In the category of homes that have sold for over a million dollars, not much has changed.

All that being said, let’s get down to the facts:

September Numbers in Bend

Median Home Price: $750k, slightly higher than August and a bit higher than $725k in September 2022

Homes Sold: 135 sold, down from 156 in August and significantly down from 182 in Sept. 2022

Days on Market: 17 days, slightly up from 16 days in August and down from 20 days in 2022

Cash vs. Conventional Loans: Of the 122 homes sold with a cash or a conventional loan, 38% were cash financed. We’ve only seen that high of a percentage of cash purchased homes in May of 2022, November of 2022

Inventory: Holding steady at just over a two month supply. (When broken down, the $500k-$700k price range has a 1.6 month supply, the $700k-$850k price range has a 3.25 month supply, $850-$1.2mil price range has a 2.5 month supple and in the $1.8mil+ category, we have a 4.3 month supply)

135 Homes Sold in September:

13% under $550k

29% from $550k-$699,999

29% from $700k-$999,999

14% from $1mill – $1,399,999

15% over $1.4mill

96 Homes Sold Under a Million:

24% sold over asking (vs. 33% in August)

13% sold at asking (vs. 15% in August)

63% sold under asking (vs. 52% in August)

39 Sold Over a Million:

23% sold over asking (vs. 22% in August)

18% sold at asking (vs. 19% in August)

59% sold under asking (vs. 59 in August)

The bottom line is that, in a weird way, it’s a good time to sell but you obviously want a game plan of where you will go once you sell your home. We may still technically be in a seller’s market but this is strictly due to the amount of current inventory. As a buyer, this is a good time to get a home for under asking, ask for credits from a seller about a buy down on your rate, really look at the inspection once you’re under contract and ask for repairs or credits toward repairs. It may not be as easy to sell a home right now but it’s a good time for negotiating for what you want.

As always, I welcome talking real estate or whatever may be on your mind as the season continues to change. Stay warm, don’t scare the kids too badly this Halloween and be well.