January 2024 Market Trends

I always like to think that this time of year is the turning point where the weather starts to get a bit warmer and signs of spring feel like they’re just around the corner. This winter, however, has been a real roller coaster. The snow seemed to come later, disappear and, lo and behold, it’s back again. I saw crocuses coming out of the ground a couple of weeks ago and I felt like I needed to shout “Not yet! You’re too early.”

The weather can be hard to predict just like the real estate market. Before our world turned upside down from the pandemic, it was a bit easier to predict what was going to happen. There was a time when lenders could say with confidence that, in times of a recession (barring the housing bubble) or a threat of one, the Feds would start to raise rates at which time mortgage rates would go up. Then, like clockwork, those rates would start to come down about 18 months later. That was not the case this time around. We’re now about 6 months past that time period that some lenders had predicted rates would start coming down and, as we’re now in uncharted waters, it’s hard to say with any guarantee when those rates will come down. I’m hearing sometime in early summer of 2024 but you can cue my breath holding now. I hope for the sake of all first-time home buyers especially that this is true. I think it’s safe to say we could all use a break.

Here in Central Oregon, we’re starting to see pricing ease a little bit. The median home price is dipping a bit and days on market are stretching out a bit longer. The cash purchases haven’t changed that much but compared to pre-pandemic times, they’re quite a bit higher. Our average back then was around 22-25% cash. Our inventory is slightly down from last month but we’re going to need a much more robust inventory to make the changes that are needed to create the healthy market that everyone is desiring. Lower interest rates will help with that at some point.

Let’s get down to the numbers:

41 of those homes were on the market for 50 days or longer:

18% under $550k
33% from $550k-$699,999

31% from $700k-$999,999

11% from $1mil-$1,399,999

7% $1.4mil+

14 sold under ask (16% vs. 31% in December)

17 sold at ask (19% vs. 16% in December)

58 sold under ask (65% vs. 53% in December)

15% sold over ask (vs. 32% in December)

18% sold at ask (vs. 16% in December)

67% sold under ask (vs. 52% in December)

19% sold over ask (vs. 26% in December)

25% sold at ask (vs. 16% in December)

56% sold under ask (vs. 58% in December)

I hope this email helped get some perspective on the market. May the coming month in real estate bring a lower interest rate and more inventory. In your world, may the coming month bring joy and laughter.

If you have any real estate related questions or are just looking for a chat, feel free to reach out.