September 2024 Market Trends

We are in full Fall swing! We actually saw a few flakes of snow yesterday. Leaves are jumping from their limbs and gathering on the ground in enticing vibrant piles of color. Time to pull those sweaters out of deep storage and get the ski gear ready to go.

Of course, fall this year also brings us a presidential election. I’ve had a few clients ask how the election could affect home sales and pricing and, as usual, I can really only look to the past as an indication of the future since my magical real estate psychic messaging service is still broken. According to the CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index, “home prices have climbed 4.8% in election years since 1987. In non-election years, values rose 4.44%.” The only exception within those election years was 2008 due to the housing bubble bursting.

If we look at our home sales compared to the pre-Covid days, we’re still tracking pretty low. We were seeing around 200 homes selling each September, whereas, for the last three Septembers, we’ve been seeing a low of 135 homes sold last September and a high of 182 homes two Septembers ago. Interest rates probably have much to do with this gap between then and now. Our days on market have also increased over the last couple years. Last month we saw an average of 54 days on market compared to 15 days a year ago. Interest rates have fallen off a bit since last year but not quite where the general public was hoping we’d be by this time. We saw rates go down slightly prior to the last Fed rate cut but then come back up with the jobs report showing positive signs. Hopefully we’ll see another rate cut this year.

September market in a snapshot:

As an anecdotal tale of where our market currently sits, I’m seeing and hearing tales of buyers not feeling so confident at the moment. Clients are identifying homes they love but wanting to wait to see “what happens.” At the end of the day, when is the “right time” to buy a house? Fall is typically a great time to make a purchase, especially with a lot of inventory out there and not as much competition. Don’t be afraid to ask for what you want from a seller; a lower offer, a concession toward closing costs or repairs. It never hurts to ask. The weeks before an election are always slow in real estate but, ultimately what ends up happening is, nothing changes between the day before the election and the day after in the real estate world.

May your Halloween be full of candy and just enough scares to keep you on your toes without freaking you out. I myself am heading to the ScaredGrounds in Redmond this evening and hoping to keep it together. My heart is already racing.

Boo!